Gold Rockets to Fresh Record Highs After Fed’s Final 2025 Rate Cut

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.

1. Gold surged to fresh all-time highs above $4,300/oz after the Fed delivered its final 2025 rate cut, extending the metal’s powerful uptrend.

2. The FOMC’s 25-basis-point cut and renewed Treasury purchases were tempered by a more hawkish tone, including dissenting votes and projections for only one cut in 2026.

3. Traders appeared to look past the Fed’s cautious messaging, driving a volatile rally in gold before prices pulled back slightly into the Friday close.

4. Next week’s delayed Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI data could reshape expectations for the 2026 policy path and set the tone for gold’s next major move.

Gold prices have soared to new all-time highs in the latter part of this week following the final FOMC meeting and interest rate cut of 2025. While the initial rally post-FOMC provided spot prices with a swift $30/oz gain to rise back above $4220, it has been the follow-on trading of Thursday and now Friday morning that brings the yellow metal well beyond the October 2025 highs to briefly price as high as $4340.

With little in the way of economic data on the schedule for this week, all eyes rested on Wednesday’s FOMC decision after markets– gold as well as US equities and other commodities-basket majors– softened a bit to start the week under profit-taking pressures. As there was already a firm expectation for the Fed to announce a third consecutive interest rate cut (as high as 90% priced-in, per the CME last week), the primary questions were less about what the FOMC would announce but with what kind of context and tone it would be delivered to the market.

The committee made good on the base-case assumptions, announcing another cut of 25 basis points to the overnight borrowing rate, a total reduction of -0.75% in 2025. In an additional move to loosen financial conditions, the Fed also announced a resumption of Treasury paper purchases, but this is where the dovish signals stopped.

For the first time in more than five years, three voting FOMC participants dissented against the rate cut, implying real division within the Fed about whether and at what pace cuts will play a role in 2026 monetary policy.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell made a considerable effort to underline that there should be no market expectations of multiple cuts front-loaded for next year or even under consideration. And in the Staff Economic Projections, the Fed estimated that overall inflation in the US economy will remain above the central bank’s 2% target until 2028, while the “dot plot” (unsurprisingly) projects just a single rate cut next year.

While gold, along with many other non-yielding assets, drove higher in Wednesday afternoon trading, it was really the start of the US markets’ Thursday session that saw the most volatile flow into gold; by mid-morning, the precious metal’s spot price had breached $4270/oz with little resistance.

Where Wednesday’s surge in prices made sense in the context of an immediate reaction to monetary easing, the Thursday rally felt counterintuitive to the Fed’s more hawkish signals, implying that they may be, for a time, shutting off the tap. Counterintuitive, but not unexplainable. After all, well before this week’s FOMC, Powell & Co. had been calling for just one cut in 2026 while at the same time many economists and desk analysts were making an argument for as many as three.

So Thursday’s rally in gold– and the one that briefly held sway over Friday morning as well– could be a case of the market deciding to look past the post-meeting commentary and stay true to the more dovish projections for next year’s monetary policy path. It may be, however, that Friday’s brief but very bright flash of volatility that saw spot prices tick as high as $4349/oz is an indication of the market softening back toward the FOMC’s estimation, as prices have quickly corrected back down to $4280 ahead of the Friday close.

Next week brings a lot more grist for the mill, not only for the marketplace to sort its estimation of what’s next but for the decision-makers at the Fed as well. Early on Tuesday, we’ll finally get the delayed Non-Farm Payrolls data for both October and November, then November’s Consumer Price Index report.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.