Chicago Cubs’ Kyle Tucker (30) runs the bases after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of Game 4 of baseball’s National League Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
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The Cubs took a significant step forward in the 2025 season, improving by nine wins in the regular season – from 83 in 2023 and 2024 to 92 this year – and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2020 and winning a postseason game and series for the first time since 2017. And a lot of that success was thanks in part to Kyle Tucker. Though their playoff run ended with a five-game division series against the Brewers, the Cubs have a lot of reasons to feel good about the future of the ballclub, provided that they can keep Tucker around.
For one, they will naturally return most of the offense that ranked in the top five in the league in runs scored this year. And they will get back in their rotation Justin Steele, a top-of-the-rotation ace who went down for almost all of the 2025 season with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery in April. The National League Central is a tough division, three out of the five teams made it to the playoffs this year, but the Cubs have many of the right pieces already in place to compete for a division title in 2026, just like they did this season.
But the key to maintaining the positive momentum is keeping Tucker in Chicago. He had a down year in 2025, thanks largely to a hand injury, but even with that, Tucker was worth 4.5 wins above replacement, the third highest on the team. That mark is nearly as high as his career best, the 4.9 fWAR he posted with the Astros in 2023. In an injury-shortened 2024 season, Tucker was also good for 4.9 fWAR, which suggests that he is capable of a much higher wins above replacement total if the outfielder can stay healthy across a full season.
And at just 28 years old, Tucker should still have years of productivity ahead of him. The Cubs need to capitalize on that and sign him to a long-term deal. They will have heavy competition for Tucker’s services; speculation already points to the Dodgers making an offer, but in order for the Cubs to not only maintain the level of success they had in 2025 but also take another step forward, they need to be prepared to compete financially with clubs like the Dodgers and Yankees.
On paper at least, they are in fine position to do that. Going into 2026, the Cubs are projected to have just over $94 million in tax space, according to Spotrac. And with just a handful of players headed for arbitration – Steele being the only big name among them – this number isn’t likely to change much over the winter.
Even if the Cubs want to avoid approaching the $244 million luxury tax threshold in place next year, there is nothing currently stopping them from avoiding the deferred salary strategy that the Dodgers have employed so successfully over the past few offseasons. In fact, the collective bargaining negotiations set to begin about a year from now could take that freedom away, so it might be best to take the opportunity while they have it.
But where the Cubs might have the financial means to keep Tucker in Chicago, one of their biggest obstacles might be Tucker himself. Since being traded from Houston last December, he has taken great care to remain noncommittal about where he expects to play next year.
That attitude continued right up until the last day he wore a Cubs uniform in 2025. In the locker room in Milwaukee after the Cubs lost Game Five of the NLDS to the Brewers earlier this month, Tucker was asked about his future, particularly as it pertained to the Cubs.
“We’ll see what happens,” Tucker told reporters about his impending free agency. “Don’t know what the future is going to hold, but if not, it’s an honor playing with all of these guys, and [I] wish everyone the best of luck, whether it’s playing [together] next year or not.”
Not exactly a guy who sounds like he has clear plans to stay in Chicago, and certainly not a guy who the Cubs might hope would give them a hometown discount. Though he has played just one year for the Cubs, under different circumstances it might be reasonable to think Tucker would be incentivized to take a lesser deal to stay in the windy city.
His injury-hampered performance this year might mean Tucker gets less in free agency than he had hoped for going into the 2025 season, but even with that, Tucker is going to be seeking the most money he can get, from whichever team offers it.
It’s possible Tucker was choosing his words carefully; there is nothing to be gained by tipping his hand in October if he is hoping to get the biggest contract possible. So what might sound like the words of a guy already packing his bags for his next team could actually just be a guy taking care with his words to make sure he doesn’t limit his options.
Either way, the Cubs were better with Tucker in 2025, and they would almost certainly keep improving if they keep him in a Cubs uniform for years to come.
